Report
OECD countries: The end of the current expansion period looks like nothing from the past
The return of the unemployment rate to the level of the structural unemployment rate shows that the OECD is currently at the end of the expansion period. Comparing the present situation with that of the end of past expansions, we note: The absence of any wage-push inflation, which allows interest rates to stay very low; The absence of any excessive private sector debt or a ny major asset price bubble; The persistence with an expan sionary fiscal policy. All this suggests that it is supply-side constraints (hiring difficulties) that will cause growth to slow and not a slowdown in demand (which is bolstered by expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and by the low risk of a correction of excessive debt or of a bursting of an asset price bubble).
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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