OECD countries: What would have happened if governments had not accumulated public debt?
Since 2008, OECD countries have increased their public debt ratios sharply and there is now concern about the burden of the public debt. But what would have happened if OECD countries had not increased their public debt? In the short term, of course, the decline in activity and employment would have been far greater; But we are primarily interested in the medium-term effects. OECD countries would have had a savings surplus, which has been corrected by the public debt, and would have accumulated external assets in the rest of the world. So there would have been a transfer of savings and capital to the rest of the world. This may seem negative, but everything depends on the use made of the public debt; If public borrowing in OECD countries stimulates consumption in these countries, it does not lead to additional capital, and then it would be better to lend to the rest of the world to accumulate capital and then receive the income on this exported capital; But if public borrowing in OECD countries stimulates public and private investment in these countries, it leads to additional capital, and then this situation is preferable to the accumulation of external assets, since the OECD receives only capital income on these assets and not labour income. The public debt is therefore higher than the accumulation of external assets provided that it leads to sufficient additional private and public investment.