OECD countries: Will the good outweigh the bad?

Several trends are highly positive for growth in OECD countries: the rise in the participation rate and in the employment rate; demand-stimulus policies; high profitability; low inflation, which is boosting purchasing power; the wealth effect resulting from rising asset prices. The key question for the growth outlook is whether these positive trends will prevail over the negative trends: weak growth in emerging countries and in global trade; the stagnation of global demand for industrial products. It now seems that outside the effects of the coronavirus crisis, these two groups of positive and negative effects more or less balance out.