Oil Market Hit by Twin Shocks – Coronavirus and OPEC Price Update
Facing a concurrent supply and demand shock, we consider the oil price outlook binary. With the coronavirus outbreak spreading to new geographies and the impact on oil consumption likely to spread well into the second quarter , either: 1) OPEC agree s a new production cut deal at some point over 2Q20, ( with or without Russia ) , supporting oil price downside and allowing Brent prices to recover towards $50/bbl by the end of the year. This is currently our base case. 2) Or no agreement is reached, resulting in massive storage builds through the year , with oil prices likely to remain under significant pressure .