Oil price and long-term interest rate

It is normally expected that a rise in the oil price will lead to a rise in risk-free long-term interest rates because of the resulting rise in expected inflation. This positive correlation between the oil price and risk-free long-term interest rates was actually seen from the 1970s to the end of 2019. But in November-December 2019 and January 2020, the significant geopolitical tension in the Middle East led to a rise in the oil price, but not to a rise in long-term interest rates, which on the contrary fell. How can a negative correlation between the oil price and long-term interest rates be explained? For this correlation to appear: The rise in the oil price must be due to a geopolitical shock and not to rapid growth; Central banks must not react by hiking their interest rates following a rise in the oil price; The rise in the oil price must lead to a decline in expected real growth and to a rise in risk avers ion . These three conditions are probably met in early 2020.