Oil prices in 2020: A range between 50 and 120 dollars per barrel

In the absence of a geopolitical crisis or conflict in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency’s latest forecasts confirm that in 2020 there will be excess global oil production over demand of around 0.7 million barrels per day . This would drive down oil prices towards 50 dollars per barrel (for Brent). But, given that a production loss of 1 million barrels per day drives up oil prices by 20%, further attacks on oil facilities in the Middle East (similar to the attack suffered by Saudi Arabia in September 2019, when 5 million barrels per day were lost) could lead to an oil price of 120 dollars per barrel. It is important to remember that in the euro zone, an increase in oil prices of 10 dollars per barrel increases inflation by 0.4 percentage point and reduces growth by 0.3 percentage point.