Where do Asian economies stand between the US and China? A value-added analysis

After the Trump administration started a global tariff war to address the perceived US trade imbalance, China's old quick fix of rerouting trade through other locations may no longer work. Asian economies with pervasive rerouting and a large reliance on intermediate goods from China can be particularly at risk, but the issue goes beyond gross exports. We use value-added measures to assess how much output is ultimately consumed in the US or in China, as well as the reliance on China's inputs by market and sector. Thus, we can determine which economies are more vulnerable when negotiating recipr...

June Employment Report Preview

Job gains in June should take a step back from the pace we have seen in the past few months, with payrolls increasing by 83k (with the three-month average of the prior three months at 135k). Given the wide swings in immigration over the past few years, it’s hard to pin down exactly the rate of payroll gains that is consistent with a stable labor market and keeps up with population growth, but the three-month moving average of 135k is likely within or at the top of that range. We expect gains to continue to be concentrated in Private Education and Health Services and Leisure and Hospitality, b...

Could Donald Trump ultimately prevail?