OSAKA MON AMOUR

Edito Hard to anticipate what progress may be made in trade negotiations at the G20 meeting in Osaka this weekend. “Tariff man” has already given us a taste of what’s to come by announcing potential “great deals” with Japan and India, perhaps to put a little more pressure on China. The markets seem suspicious (we are too), as confirmed by the consolidation in American risky assets this week. Unless there is a substantive announcement this weekend, and with a significant US macro news flow ( ISMs and NFP ) coming up, focus should very quickly return to the Fed, and to the assumption (that we find very aggressive) of a 50bp cut on July 31.