Report
Patrick Artus

Persistently expansionary monetary policy in the euro zone: How to escape the real estate price trap?

It is very likely that monetary policy in the euro zone will remain highly expansionary: inflation in the euro zone is going to subside quite rapidly, public debt sustainability must be ensured, the ECB wants to help drive up the employment rate, contribute to the energy transition, etc. If real long-term interest rates remain highly negative, real estate prices will continue to rise rapidly. It is this rise in real estate prices that is the major drawback of this persistently expansionary monetary policy. So what can be done? Abandon the highly expansionary monetary policy? This is unlikely; Use macroprudential banking regulations? T his might not be very effective if interest rates are much lower than growth in real estate prices and if investable liquidity is highly abundant; Tax (realised or unrealised) capital gains? Th is may be unpopular. So we cannot really see a solution to this problem of excessive real estate price growth due to the persistently highly expansionary monetary policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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