Report
Patrick Artus

Persistently lower growth in China? Why? What effects?

We believe that Chinese growth will be permanently weaker, due to: Peaking productivity gains, population ageing; The deterioration in companies’ financial situation, caused by the rapid rise in costs, and currently due to coronavirus, leading to defaults and capital destruction; The fall in the investment rate, in particular the decline in foreign direct investment in China due to the decline in global value chains. Persistently weaker growth in China will lead to: Increas ingly weak global trade (hence the increased need for countries to have vigorous domestic demand); A fall in commodity prices; Globally, weaker growth and lower inflation, leading to more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis
Christopher HODGE ... (+2)
  • Christopher HODGE
  • Jonathan PINGLE

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch