Poland’s presidential election runoff: consequences of an extended “cohabitation” regime

L ast Sunday , Poland held the second round of its presidential election. In a closely contested race , nationalist Eurosceptic candidate Karol Nawrocki , nominated by the hard - right opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) , narrowly defeated his opponent Rafał Trzaskowski from the center-right , pro-EU Civic C oalition . What does this outcome mean for Europe and Polish domestic affairs ? In brief , it represents a setback for pro- European reformists in Poland and a shift toward s isolationism and a pro-Trump populist agenda . T he constitutional veto power of the PiS -backed president would enable him to block the reformist agenda of the current pro-EU government , further weakening its position ahead of the 2027 legislative election s . Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government has already lost popularity due to the disenchantment of its supporters ( including younger population s and women) amid the lack of progress o n promised reform s , particularly those in judiciary and i n the social sphere . Moreover , weakened domestically , Tusk would struggle to realize his ambition of enhancing Poland’s stan ding within the EU. Conversely , Poland now seems set to join the camp of European isolationists - such as Hungary and Slovakia - in the medium term , likely after the next legislative election s scheduled for 2027 . If the immediate market reaction has been muted, the economic consequences of the unconstrained PiS rule c ould be negative , with further deterioration in public finances , frozen EU funds , and rising inflation due to the anti-immigration polic ies .