Policy mix: Can both fiscal and monetary policy be made less expansionary at the same time?
In 2022, the United States is expected to both start exiting its highly expansionary monetary policy and sharply reduce the fiscal deficit. The same configuration could appear in 2023 in the euro zone. Is it a good idea for fiscal and monetary policy to both become less expansionary at the same time? We examine whether this configuration has appeared in the past in the United States and the euro zone, and what effect it had on: Economic activity (consumption, investment, growth); Financial markets (equities, credit spreads) and real estate. We find that a simultaneous shift to less expansionary monetary and fiscal policies occurred in 1980, from 1987 to 1990, from 1997 to 2001 and from 2005 to 2007. At the time it caused falls in demand, activity and financial and real estate markets with a lag of one to two years.