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Population ageing is now affecting some parts of the world but not others: What are the implications? Trade balances are going to be turned upside down
Population ageing is now affecting Europe, Japan and China, but not North America, Latin America, India, Africa or other Asian emerging countries (excluding China and India). In the countries where population ageing has taken hold, we should expect to see: Lower growth than in the other countries as the labour force declines. This is true for Europe and Japan but not China; The consumption of accumulated assets, which should see Europe, Japan and China start having external deficits and Latin America, North America, India, Africa and other emerging countries having external surpluses as this second group of regions buys assets from the first. This is precisely the opposite of the current situation, except with regard to Asian emerging countries other than China and India. Current-account balances should therefore be expected to be turned upside down, which will boost domestic demand in Europe, J apan and China and curb it in North America, Latin America, Africa and India.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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