Portugal: What joint venture to govern with the center right?

In accordance with the latest opinion polls, the Democratic Alliance (AD) led by outgoing Prime Minister Luis Montenegro won the early legislative elections held on Sunday, May 18. The Socialist Party loses a lot of ground and finds itself tied with Chega led by Andre Ventura , the far-right party, in terms of the number of MPs . Chega has secured a significant number of seats, further consolidating its presence in the Portuguese political landscape despite its relative youth as a political formation. These results do not clarify the political situation, with the Assembly of the Republic remaining fragmented but in a healthy economic environment. The Democratic Alliance, composed of the PSD (Social Democratic Party), the party of outgoing Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, and the historic center-right ally CDS-PP, won the early elections held on Sunday, May 18, 2025. According to preliminary results, the AD (Democratic Allianz) secured 89 seats out of the 230 in the Assembly of the Republic with 32.1% of the votes. The AD increased its representation from 80 MPs to 89. The Socialist Party, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, retained second place with 58 seats and 23. 4 % of the votes, a decline from the previous elections as it lost 20 seats. Finally, the far-right party Chega also obtained 58 seats with 22.6% of the votes, which is 8 more than previously. Chega is firmly establishing itself in the Portuguese political landscape. These results depict a fragmented Assembly once again, limiting coalition options. On the right, while the AD is ideologically close to the small Liberal Initiative (IL), which now counts 9 deputies compared to 8 previously, it would still not be able to reach a sufficient majority even with their support (the absolute majority stands at 115) . On the left of the political spectrum, the combined seats of the parties that previously supported the socialist governments of Antonio Costa (Socialist Party 58 seats, Left Bloc 1, Communist Party & Greens 3) are clearly distant from a sufficient majority to impose itself. This raises the question of a potential negotiation between the center-right and the far-right to form a government. This would represent a significant political turnaround given Luis Montenegro's rejection of this option during the campaign. Furthermore, the option of abstention (as in 2024) by the Socialist Party during the confidence vote to invest the future head of government is not entirely assured either. Nevertheless, this option appears more credible, although it would require reaching an agreement in a country that is not accustomed to such negotiations. However, the significant improvement in the economic situation, in terms of growth, labor market, and public finances, will allow for these discussions to take place in a favorable economic environment.