Potential growth after COVID: Higher or lower?

There are two schools of thought. For one, the COVID crisis, like all recessions, will lead to a fall in productivity gains, due to the loss of human capital caused by unemployment and reduced capital accumulation during the crisis. For the other, the COVID crisis is giving way to a fresh drive to modernise economies: corporate digitalisation, e-commerce, working from home, public investments in innovation, training, etc. To determine which of these two theories is right, we compare OECD countries to find out what faster productivity gains are associated with (automation, R&D, corporate investment in new technologies, skills, education system performance, the level of corporate investment and also the employment rate and the weight of industry). In other words, could economic modernisation after COVID lead to faster productivity gains? We find that: High productivity gains are associated with high levels of research, corporate total investment and investment in new technologies, as well as a high level of skills among children and adults; If the crisis does lead to accelerated corporate modernisation and to a drive to improve skills, then it may accelerate productivity and stop potential growth from falling.