Predictive modelling of financial crises in France

In an increasingly volatile global financial environment, highlighted by events such as the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, an early detection of a potential financial crises is essential for the stability and resilience of financial institutions. What past crises have shown is the interconnectedness of global markets, where local financial issues can quickly escalate into widespread instability. Subtle early signals, such as shifts in market indices, fluctuations in commodity prices, and changes in exchange rates, can potentially predict major turbulence, making the integration of diverse market indices crucial for capturing risk indicators that can signal a growing risk of financial crises. By using advanced machine learning techniques, our model offers a “proactive” view of risks. The results show a significant improvement in performance metrics, providing a useful tool for financial risk management and informed decision-making in a dynamic economic environment. G1: Financial risk indicator with predictions