Prospect of permanently negative real long-term interest rates: What effects on savings behaviours?
The outlook in France and the euro zone is for real long-term interest rates to remain quite negative for a long time as inflation normalises. This renders highly unlikely a “Japanese” scenario where savers are willing to hold financial assets with zero nominal yields (cash, bonds, life insurance). I n Japan, outside one-offs (sharp yen depreciation, VAT hike), inflation is zero and interest rates are zero and not negative. If European and French savers refuse to hold financial assets with zero nominal yields, what can they do? Invest in risky assets (equities, High Yield) or illiquid assets (real estate, private equity). Call on governments to issue a large quantity of inflation-indexed bonds; And altogether shun risk-free investments (deposits, public sector bonds, euro life insurance funds).