Report
Patrick Artus

Public debt: Whatever of the solution, young people will pay

The public debt ratio is rising sharply in OECD countries due to the response to the COVID crisis. There appear to be two possible solutions: Either the public debt is sold to private investors the conventional way. In the medium to long term, a more restrictive fiscal policy would then be needed to ensure government solvency (public spending cuts, increase in the tax burden). This would lead young people to pay in the medium to long term; Or the public debt is monetised by the central bank, which has been the case during the COVID crisis. If the central bank do es not reduce the size of its balance sheet, there is then no need to repay this debt. But the second solution would give rise to a sharp increase in the money supply, with the very likely consequence of a sharp rise in asset prices - in particular real estate prices. Quite rapidly, an increase in real estate prices results in a tax on young home buyers. We see that whether there is public debt monetisation or not, it is young people who will pay the cost of the increase in the public debt - soon in the event of monetisation; in the medium term without it .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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