Report
Patrick Artus

Public spending on pensions is negatively correlated with productivity gains and the employment rate; why?

When comparing OECD countries, we see a significant negative correlation between the weight of public spending on pensions on the one hand and productivity gains and the employment rate, i.e. potential growth, on the other hand. Can we explain this negative correlation? The negative correlation between the weight of public spending on pensions and the employment rate has a mechanical cause: if the employment rate of over-60 year olds is low (early retirement age), pension spending is high; but there may also be a causal link that goes via the tax burden: high pension spending leads to high corporate social contributions, which is negative for employment; The negative correlation between the weight of public spending on pensions and productivity gains is first surprising: if older employees retire earlier, the average age of the working population decreases, which should be positive for productivity. Here too, the causality must go via the increase in the tax burden on companies due to the increase in the weight of pensions. A comparison of OECD countries confirms that the negative correlation between the weight of public pensions on the one hand and the employment rate or productivity gains on the other hand goes via the high weight of social contributions when the weight of public pensions is high. The negative correlation between the weight of public pensions and potential growth (via the employment rate and productivity gains) must be taken into account when considering the organisation of pension systems.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch