Quantitative easing in emerging countries: What effects?
The COVID crisis has driven some emerging countries, and not only OECD countries, to implemen t quantitative easing. We seek to identify the effects of this policy in emerging countries: Will it push down long-term interest rates? Will it lead to capital outflows and exchange rate depreciation, which would be very destabilising? It is actually possible that the money created by central banks will be converted into foreign currencies in emerging countries. We look at the emerging countries that implemented quantitative easing in March 2020: South Korea, South Africa, Poland, Hungary, Philippines. We see: Three cases of success (South Korea, Poland, Philippines), with a fall in long-term interest rates without any particular exchange rate depreciation; Two cases of failure (South Africa, Hungary), without a fall in long-term interest rates and with a sharp exchange rate depreciation caused by capital outflows.