Markets ready for goldilocks

Markets are enjoying once again the “not too hot, not too cold” US newsflow, with labor market and inflation figures aligning to validating the continuation of the Fed cutting cycle. Risk appetite (or complacency?) is rising but also concentration, towards the highest quality expensive tech names.An environment still supportive for risk assets, but more and more complex to navigate going forward, as the slowdown in activity may weigh on EPS, and as interest rates risks may resurface. The consensu view of a supportive Fed is still fragile, with uncomfortable inflation figures. We maintain our b...

La longue ombre de la Russie sur la poussée de la Chine en faveur d’un nouvel ordre mondial

What would be the consequences in the event of France’s rating downgrade

►   The end of 2025 will be marked by the review of France's sovereign rating by the major rating agencies. The negative outlook set by Fitch and S&P has primarily been justified by deteriorating French public finances and political uncertainties. The likelihood of a downgrade will therefore largely depend on how well macroeconomic performance aligns with the agencies' scenarios, as well as political (in)stability.►   Rates: The current relative value of OATs vs. their EGB counterparts suggests that the risk of a downgrade is already priced in. A downgrade from AA- to A+ would not have major i...