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Real estate is the first to suffer in the United States when interest rates rise: What ceiling does this create for the 10-year interest rate?
When long-term interest rates rise in the United States, residential real estate is the first to suffer , before other demand components, before asset prices and before employment. This leads us to ask: At what level of mortgage interest rates does residential construction start to deteriorate ? Under the reasonable assumption that the Federal Reserve does not want this deterioration to occur, what is then the maximum permissible level for the 10-year Treasury interest rate? We find that this ceiling for the 10-year Treasury interest rate is 3% to 3.5%, i.e. much higher than the current rate.
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Natixis
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Patrick Artus
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