Reason “backwards” about the likelihood of a recession

Whether the United States or the euro zone will enter into recession is a question on the minds of many. To answer it, one has to reason “backwards”: how much will growth have to fall and how much will the unemployment rate have to rise in order to get inflation back down to 2% in 2024? This loss of growth and rise in the unemployment rate may be brought about either by spontaneous economic mechanisms or by restrictive monetary policies. For there to be 2% inflation in 2024, there will have to be in 2023: In the United States, an increase in the unemployment rate of 3 percentage points, corresponding to growth of around -0.5%; In the euro zone, an increase in the unemployment rate of 2 percentage points, corresponding to growth of around -2%.