Report
Patrick Artus

Recruitment difficulties: Cyclical or structural?

From the 1990s to the COVID crisis, companies’ hiring difficulties were: Both cyclical and structural in the United States; Only cyclical in the euro zone and France . This difference explains the sharp decline in the employment rate in the United States compared with the euro zone over this period. But after the COVID crisis, it seems that recruitment difficulties are also becoming structural in the euro zone and France. As has been the case in the United States for the past 20 years, we could therefore see a decline in the employment rate in Europe, and therefore a loss of potential GDP. Why are there structural recruitment difficulties? Because labour force skills are not adapted to the needs of companies; Because employees increasingly reject certain jobs (arduous, staggered and atypical hours). To get out of this serious problem, the solutions seem clear: Training and skills improvement; Stricter rules on unemployment benefits regarding the return to work; Pay rises in arduous jobs; Immigration.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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