Regardless of short-term developments, a gradual pick-up in euro-zone inflation should be expected

In the short term, the euro zone will go through two developments in opposite directions: Wage disinflation, due to the slowdown in wages caused by the crisis and the rise in unemployment; Cost inflation, due to the decline in productivity, in particular the new health standards. But if we look at the medium- and long-term trend in inflation in the euro zone, we probably have to conclude that after a long period of disinflation (1982-2020), the euro zone will now go through a long period of reflation (resurgence of inflation) due to: Population ageing; The regionalisation of value chains ; The rise in labour costs in emerging countries; The shift to green energy.