risky assets: is this the end?

It is still too early to change our overall positioning : long equities vs short duration, and long equit ies vs credit. Even though we are late in the cycle, geographical divergences have become more pronounced and there are many uncertainties (trade war, Brexit, Chinese slowdown), we cannot see any catalysts in the short term that could change the pseudo "goldilocks" paradigm (growth above or close to the potential, moderate inflation), especially as central banks ’ monetary normalisation remain s cautious. A cyclical turnaround like the one taking shape involves worsened performances for risky assets, especially when adjusted for risk, but positive performances in a robust growth scenario - which is the scenario we are in. October’s correction therefore provides a buying opportunity for US equities, even in the run-up to the US mid-term elections. We still remain cautious on Europe and emerging countries . We maintain our bias short duration USD and core EUR. We believe the inflation risk premium remains underestimated, especially in the United States, where it is mainly real interest rates that have influenced nominal interest rates. We are neutral on peripheral debt and we are play ing Spain vs France/Germany tactically . We are tactically positive on oil after October’s marked correction .