Russian Metal: sanctions vs. weaponization?

While most news outlets have focused on the impact of the Russia Ukraine crisis on the energy sector, Russia is also a major producer of metals. Metal prices can be heavily impacted by western imposed sanctions or Russian “weaponization” of metal exports. In this report we l ook at the historical impact of sanctions and weaponization and explain which metals are the most likely to be impacted. Our view is that even if sanctions or weaponization don’t take place, the possibility of either or both happening is enough to drive b ase and precious metal prices higher in the near term and into a volatile period . As such we have revised upwards our forecasts of the metals complex and expect that gold prices will break through $2000/oz over the coming days if the conflict further escalates .