Russia’s Long Shadow over China’s Push for a New Global Order

China’s Victory Parade, which took place on September 3rd in Beijing, to commemorate the 80th Anniversary of Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japan, was more than a display of military might. It was a declaration of intent for a new global order.The event crystallizes how Xi Jinping, with a decisive push from Russia President Vladimir Putin, is positioning China and Russia at the heart of an alternative system of global governance, building on momentum from the recent SCO summit in Tianjin and the unveiling of the Global Governance Initiative. While the substance may not differ significantly from Washington’s current approach - dividing the world into spheres of influence - the key message is that the China-Russia-led bloc is on the rise, seeking to occupy the space that the U.S. is gradually relinquishing.While the parade has sent strong messages, many observers in the West continue to believe that President Xi was mainly addressing his domestic audience, to reinforce his authority by projecting strength at the global level at a time when the Trump administration has imposed hefty tariffs on China. However, the symbolism of the parade and the rhetoric in Xi’s speech clearly point to a turning point in China’s Weltanschauung, in particular in its relations with the West. For the past few years, and accentuated by the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022,  Xi has been cautiously moving between two positions, that of filling the void left by the US on multilateralism, all the more so since Trump came to power, and a more aggressive stance towards a radical change of the global order leaving behind Western norms and values. This parade offers a turning point in Xi’s ambivalence towards the latter, which indicates how much Putin is influencing China’s foreign policy. The clearest signal of this is Xi’s call to choose between war and peace, invoking the spirit of Alexander the Great’s maxim.A potential interpretation of Xi’s choice of wording could go all the way to justify war to defend China (or Russia, for that matter). Weltanschauung, which could translate more pragmatically into core interests, such as Taiwan and Ukraine. A milder interpretation could be to read “Peace” in terms of acquiescence to U.S.-led norms and “war” as systemic confrontation through the building of parallel institutions.Putin’s long shadow is clearly exemplified in North Korea’s Kim Jong Un’s presence at the parade, which Putin is likely to have encouraged as a gesture of reciprocity for Pyongyang’s covert military and logistical support in the Ukraine war. For Moscow, showcasing Kim in Beijing signals that Russia can bring additional anti-Western players to China’s push for a new global order.The fact that the Beijing parade took place right after the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin, this time hosted by China, also points to the internal dimension of the parade, rather than merely for a domestic audience. This SCO summit was particularly relevant as it brought Prime Minister Modi back to China after his last visit, also for the SCO summit, under China’s rotating presidency back in 2018.With the same spirit as the latest BRICS summit, non-dollar financial mechanisms, in a strong anti-Western rhetoric, were pushed at this summit, with Russia as an obvious beneficiary. In addition to the de-dollarization push, this SCO summit saw the launch of one more global initiative by China, namely the Global Governance Initiative, which has an ultimate intention the reshaping - or potentially remaking - of international institutions away from Western norms and values. Russia will obviously benefit enormously from such an initiative, as it provides a platform to avoid pariah status by embedding within a broader bloc led by China.A final reflection goes towards why Xi may have chosen this particular moment to opt for the more aggressive anti-Western option towards China’s reshaping of the global order. A number of reasons come to mind. To start, while China should, in principle, be weary of not reaching a deal with the US, as well as worsening its relations with its largest export market, the European Union, the reality is that the Chinese economy has remained rather resilient to Trump’s tariffs, at least so far.Secondly, Trump’s aggression - through tariffs and other means - against allies and beyond, with India being a clear case in point, has facilitated Xi’s choice for a harsher anti-Western stance, very much to Putin’s liking.  In other words, Trump is offering a golden window of opportunity for Xi to change the world in the direction he wishes, which Putin wishes too.All in all, with Russia pushing from behind and China seizing the stage, the world is witnessing the embryonic formation of a rival order, one whose contours were visible in Tianjin, crystallizing in Beijing’s Global Governance Initiative, and taking final stage in China’s parade where Putin, as well as Kim, show the world which alliances China cares the most. *This is a reprint. The comment was published by CommonWealth Magazine. /article/article.action?id=4322