Report
Patrick Artus

Services and goods in the COVID crisis

The GDP level in Q2 2021 was still lower than the pre-COVID crisis GDP level and even lower than the GDP level that would have been achieved without the COVID crisis. It is therefore difficult to understand why there are now bottlenecks and sharp increases in commodity and intermediate consumption prices. The explanation may be the shift in demand towards goods at the expense of services, which shifts production towards economic sectors that use much more commodities, transport, etc. We examine this shift in demand, and we seek to determine whether it is definitive or transitory, which is important for the future trend in commodity prices. There was indeed a shift in production from services to goods in 2020 and early 2021, but this is no longer the case now: this explanation is no longer valid.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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