Natixis - Seule une fraction de l’excès de déficit public de 2020 et du début de 2021 va être dépensée : la réduction du déficit public en 2022 sera bien restrictive

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Natixis

Patrick Artus

Seule une fraction de l’excès de déficit public de 2020 et du début de 2021 va être dépensée : la réduction du déficit public en 2022 sera bien restrictive

Les déficits publics (nous regardons les États-Unis et la zone euro) vont baisser fortement entre 2021 et 2022. Pour que cette réduction du déficit public ne soit pas restrictive et ne réduise pas la croissance en 2022, il faudrait que la totalité de l’épargne forcée accumulée en 2020 et 2021 en raison de l’importance des déficits publics soit consommée (dépensée) en 2022. Or, ce ne sera pas le cas : une partie de cet excès d’épargne sera dépensée, une partie investie en actifs financiers ou en logements existants (anciens). Cela implique que la réduction des déficits publics en 20 2 2 va bien faire reculer la croissance.

04/08/2021 6 FR

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Patrick Artus

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Seule une fraction de l’excès de déficit public de 2020 et du début de 2021 va être dépensée : la réduction du déficit public en 2022 sera bien restrictive

How is China reacting to Trump’s trade war?

BoE approved a 25bp rate cut with a 5-4 vote; two members dissented, favoring no change

Australia: The Labor Party remains and, with it, stimulative economic policies keeping RBA vigilant

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