Report
Short EU belly in 5-10-30y
New spending is likely to be enacted sooner than never on new defen s e projects to improve collective security in Europe and make up for a US potential withdrawal. The EU borrowing capacity will play a role in the new defense set-up. We therefore go short EU Dec 3 4 ( EU000A3K4ES4 ) against EU Dec30 ( EU000A3LNF05 ) and EU Oct54 ( EU000A3K4EY2 ) on a risk-weighted basis, for the next 6 months, at -2 4. 5bp . With a carry-rolldown we estimate at -1.4 bp / month on the position , w e stop losses at -35bp.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Benoit GERARD
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