Report
Patrick Artus

Should central banks’ inflation targets be changed?

The Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England have an inflation target today of 2%. However , given the current inflation dynamics, getting inflation back to 2% would require a considerable increase in interest rates, which would trigger a recession, make it impossible to carry out the necessary public spending and possibly spark a financial crisis. To avoid these effects of a markedly more restrictive monetary policy, one can imagine: Combating inflation through an increase in taxes instead of an increase in interest rates. But higher taxes would also lead to a recession (although not a debt crisis); Changing central banks' inflation target so that they can tolerate inflation of 3 or 4% in 2023. A higher inflation target has already been proposed to allow nominal interest rates to be higher at the end of expansion periods, giving them more room to be cut in the event of a recession. T he goal today would be different: it would be to avoid a sharp increase in interest rates that would be catastrophic for economies and public finances.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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