Should investors buy European equities?
Whether or not investors should buy European equities rests on an interpretation of the very high level of the equity risk premium (currently in excess of 6%). At first sight, the high level of this equity risk premium makes European equities attractive for investors, as it could fall in the future. But why is this premium so high ? Because of a rise in risk aversion? If this is the case, it may be permanent and the risk premium may not fall back down. This explanation is valid, but incomplete; Because of a rise in the actual risk of holding equities? This would contradict the fact that euro-zone companies continue to enjoy very high profitability; Because i nvestors use a higher discount rate for future earnings than the actual long-term interest rate, which is very low? This hypothesis seems valid, which points to a fall in the equity risk premium once investors accept the idea that long-term interest rates are going to remain very low for a long time.