Should investors overweight emerging countries?
Investors are now turning away from US and European equities as real interest rates rise and growth prospects decline. Should investors then switch to emerging market equities? In general, when dollar interest rates rise, emerging countries' exchange rates and stock market indices fall; It is therefore not normally advisable to overweight emerging countries in the type of configuration seen today; an exception can however be made for emerging countries that benefit from high commodity prices; A second exception can be made for China; once the COVID crisis is over, economic policies there will be highly expansionary to obtain strong growth, and, in particular, interest rates will be very low, which is good for Chinese equities.