Should investors sell everything?
Central banks will really have to combat inflation . I n all likelihood , this will lead interest rates to rise by much more than currently expected. For investors, this raises the question of their asset allocation in such a configuration: It seems clear that risk-free bonds should be avoided, given the risk of a sharper rise in interest rates; Stock market indices and cryptocurrency prices are highly sensitive to real interest rates and central bank liquidity. In the current environment, listed equities and cryptocurrencies should therefore be avoided; unlisted equities (private equity) are likely to follow listed equities with a lag; The first big question concerns real assets (real estate, infrastructure, green investments , etc.), which currently provide a hedge against inflation and rising interest rates. Will real interest rates rise sufficiently to drag down the prices of these assets? A second big question concerns risky debt (High Yield bonds , private debt). Is the risk-taking involved in investing in risky debt , in return for the corresponding risk premia, still necessary if risk-free interest rates are higher and in an environment where corporate risk is also higher? In a situation of sharply rising real interest rates, this points towards investors shun ning risk-free bonds, listed equities, cryptocurrencies, real assets and risky bonds. Investors should then invest in cash (!) , at least until interest rates have stabilised .