Report
Patrick Artus

Should investors sell everything?

Central banks will really have to combat inflation . I n all likelihood , this will lead interest rates to rise by much more than currently expected. For investors, this raises the question of their asset allocation in such a configuration: It seems clear that risk-free bonds should be avoided, given the risk of a sharper rise in interest rates; Stock market indices and cryptocurrency prices are highly sensitive to real interest rates and central bank liquidity. In the current environment, listed equities and cryptocurrencies should therefore be avoided; unlisted equities (private equity) are likely to follow listed equities with a lag; The first big question concerns real assets (real estate, infrastructure, green investments , etc.), which currently provide a hedge against inflation and rising interest rates. Will real interest rates rise sufficiently to drag down the prices of these assets? A second big question concerns risky debt (High Yield bonds , private debt). Is the risk-taking involved in investing in risky debt , in return for the corresponding risk premia, still necessary if risk-free interest rates are higher and in an environment where corporate risk is also higher? In a situation of sharply rising real interest rates, this points towards investors shun ning risk-free bonds, listed equities, cryptocurrencies, real assets and risky bonds. Investors should then invest in cash (!) , at least until interest rates have stabilised .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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