Report
Patrick Artus

Should there be public debt cancellation in the euro zone?

E uro-zone countries ’ public debt ratios will be extremely high after the coronavirus crisis, which may jeopardise growth. This has led to proposals to cancel public debt, or at least a portion of the public debt. What to make of these proposals ? We do not believe they make sense : The government bonds held by the ECB are effectively cancelled if the ECB commits to not reducing the size of its balance sheet after the crisis; Cancelling government bonds held by banks would lead to failures among banks, for which government bond holdings serve as liquidity reserve s ; Cancelling government bonds held by institutional investors (life insurers in particular) and households would lead to a collapse in household wealth, including for low-income households that hold life insurance contracts; Cancelling government bonds held by non-residents would erode all confidence in the euro zone and sharply drive up euro long-term interest rates.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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