Report
Patrick Artus

Should we be optimistic or pessimistic about Germany?

Germany is often held up as a model for other European countries, given: The high level of the employment rate; The good quality of the education and vocational training system; The significant modernisation and the large industry; The low public debt , which gives considerable fiscal policy leeway . But now, on the contrary, a negative view of Germany is gaining ground, given: The strong dependence on industries of the past, which are contracting; The uselessness of the savings surplus; The return of economies to regionalisation; The lack of productivity gains; The fact that savers and future pensioners are being ruined by negative interest rates. What view of Germany should we choose, an optimistic or a pessimistic view? Everything will depend on Germany's capacity to use its strong points to avoid the threats: in particular, it should use the savings surplus to invest in the industries of the future and to boost investment in other euro-zone countries (instead of lending the savings surplus to the rest of the world outside the euro zone), which would restore productivity and regional growth .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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