Should we believe the story told by yield curves?
                                                            We begin with forward interest rates (10-year interest rates  in  1 year, 2 years and 5 years) on the yield curves of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Japan.  Current yield curves tell the following story: Central banks in OECD countries will keep monetary policies highly expansionary for over five years without responding to rising inflation; They will continue to buy long-dated bonds to prevent long-term interest rates from rising, including in the peripheral euro-zone countries. Is this story credible? We do not believe so. This policy by central banks would: Give rise to asset price bubbles; Create a huge moral hazard  with respect to  governments; Only be possible if inflation rates remain very low, which is not certain. So in all  likelihood there  will be a correction (steepening) of yield curves.