Should we expect macroprudential policies to stabilise asset prices?
In response to a question, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell defended the idea that if the expansionary monetary policy drove up asset prices, the answer to this problem was in the hands of governments, which should implement macroprudential policies. This would give the central bank a free hand to monetise fiscal deficits. Should we expect macroprudential policies to stop asset price bubbles if monetary policies remain highly expansionary? We do not believe so, because: Taxation of short-term capital gains (or non-tax deductibility of loan interest), which could be effective, is rejected by governments that do not want to increase taxes or the cost of capital; A slowdown in lending (regulations on loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, loan terms; countercyclical capital buffers, etc.) is ineffective since bubbles are not caused by credit, but by money being reinvested (portfolio rebalancing). As a result, only a less expansionary monetary policy can curb the rise in asset prices.