SOME IDEAS TO PLAY US RISK

If our central scenario assumes a gradual slowdown of the US economy close to its potential, the risks are accumulating ( US Recession: what risk and what consequences? ) and after 10 years of expansion, it is difficult to see the probabili ty of a recession decrease . However, at this stage, only the bond market seems to really integrate this risk. What are the implications for asset allocation? Wh ich equity or cross-asset strategies should be implemented? We propose here simple ideas to play a scenario of a marked slowdown, or even a recession of the American economy: defensive portfolio, defensive vs cyclical equity sectors , large caps vs small caps, CTA.