Report
“Spontaneous” structural inflation in the euro zone: around 4.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024
The key question is indeed whether structural inflation in 2024 will spontaneously be significantly higher than the ECB's 2% target. If so, the ECB will have to raise interest rates much more than is currently expected. Structural inflation is the inflation that will occur as a result of structural changes in wages and commodity prices, if the ECB does not intervene to lower inflation. We believe it will be around 4.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024, far more than the ECB expects (2.1% in 2024).
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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