“Spontaneous” structural inflation in the euro zone: around 4.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024

The key question is indeed whether structural inflation in 2024 will spontaneously be significantly higher than the ECB's 2% target. If so, the ECB will have to raise interest rates much more than is currently expected. Structural inflation is the inflation that will occur as a result of structural changes in wages and commodity prices, if the ECB does not intervene to lower inflation. We believe it will be around 4.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024, far more than the ECB expects (2.1% in 2024).