Report
Patrick Artus

Stable monetary policy and risk premia

We want to test the following hypothesis: when monetary policy is expected to be stable and not change, risk premia on the various asset classes become low: the risk is linked to the expected variability of monetary policy. We therefore look at the link between expected changes in the short-term interest rate (which we measure by the spread and the absolute value of the spread between 2-year and 3-month interest rates) on the one hand and the term premium on long-term interest rates, the VIX, the VSTOXX and credit spreads on the other. We find a clear link between expectations of little change in the short-term interest rate on the one hand and in equity variability and the credit spread on the other.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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