Stop focusing only on monetary policy

Economists and investors spend a lot of time trying to predict central banks’ future decisions. But given the current interest rate situation, central banks’ choices will in reality have little impact on the economies. Much less time should be spent on thinking about central banks’ choices and far more time on the factors that have a first-order effect on the global economy and on OECD countries, in particular: China’s economic situation; The prospects for industry; Euro-zone and US fiscal policy; Trends in productivity and the participation rate; The oil price.