Supply shock or demand shock?
We seek to determine whether the current shock to economies (we look at the examples of the United States and the euro zone) is a supply shock or a demand shock: On the one hand, there is an increase in production costs (due to the rise in energy and other commodity prices); On the other hand, there is a decline in household purchasing power (due to the fall in real wages and in real transfer payments to households). The situation in the United States is different from that in Europe: The fall in US households' real disposable income is very significant, and eventually, once the US household savings rate stops falling, the negative demand shock is likely to dominate; But there is no fall in European households’ disposable income, due to expansionary fiscal policies, and the negative supply shock will certainly dominate in the euro zone . This means that the inflationary shock is likely to be longer-lasting in the euro zone and more significant than in the United States.