Report
Patrick Artus

Support for purchasing power: An increase in the tax burden is inevitable, but of what nature?

We illustrate our fairly general point with the case of France. The lowest-income wage earners are going to be hit by: The rise in energy prices, due to the rise in demand for goods, the war in Ukraine and then the energy transition; The rise in food prices, due to the war in Ukraine; The rise in housing costs, as negative real interest rates drive up real estate prices; The ongoing destruction of manufacturing jobs, due to skills problems and later the energy transition. Low-income households will therefore require some income support. This can be done in two ways, but both lead to an increase in the tax burden on other households: By increasing public transfer payments to low-income households, which would come on top of other increases in public spending (healthcare, reindustrialisation, energy transition, defence spending, etc.). Eventually, “real taxes” would have to be increased; By increasing low wages, which would inevitably lead to higher prices for goods and services produced with low-skilled employment. Other households would then be taxed by paying more for these goods and services. There will therefore inevitably be an increase in taxation , either through real taxes or in the form of higher prices.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch