Report
Patrick Artus

Surge in financial imbalances as soon as confidence and a normal level of economic activity return

As long as economic activity is weak and health and economic uncertainty is high, governments and central banks will maintain the current organisation: massive fiscal deficits and monetisation of these deficits. This may remain in place in 2021, which means that at the end of 2021, if confidence and normal economic activity return, the quantity of money put into circulation will have been considerable, and that this money will then be invested in risky assets: real estate, equities, emerging assets, etc. The massive investment of this money will lead to bubbles (real estate, equities), large international capital flows and exchange-rate fluctuations, and therefore to very significant financial instability, which obviously requires a return of confidence to appear. The price to pay for today's policy of massive monetised fiscal deficits will therefore be significant financial instability - but there was obviously no choice but to pursue this policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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