Tech Markets Q4-24: China vs. America - When the Great Wall meets the Great Fall…

When we wrote in September that the party was over for Big Tech companies, we were, in hindsight, a little too early. Donald Trump's return to the White House sparked an almost irrational surge of optimism in the stock markets and we found ourselves gradually compelled to revise our analysis. We had in fact almost capitulated in the face of such irresistible onslaught, when news from China came to our rescue…In the first part of this document, we go back over the DeepSeek story and share our views on Nasdaq valuations in an increasingly uncertain technological context for Generative AI.Meanwhile, in the world of private equity, the trends of 2024 show no sign of abating. With $14.6bn already raised YTD, AI has got off to a roaring start in 2025. Underlining investors' appetite for startups exploiting this technology, the amounts raised since the start of 2025 are close to the levels reached in Q1-24, while we are barely two months into Q1-25. Will the infatuation last, or will it gradually run out of steam?Finally, as defence spending continues to rise in an increasingly difficult geopolitical environment, the technology sector has an important role to play in the fields of AI-powered intelligence & cybersecurity, unmanned vehicles, advanced weapon systems, precision electronics, materials, connectivity…The momentum is clearly visible in listed markets, with defence tech stocks  posting significant gains and strongly outperforming the Nasdaq in recent weeks. But is it now too late to join in the euphoria?