Tech Markets Quarterly September 2025: One Big Beautiful Bubble ?

Taking a look at Nasdaq volatility, you’d be forgiven for thinking that nothing major has happened in US technology circles since Donald Trump triggered a tariff-induced mini panic at the beginning of April.  Fear is gone. The same familiar AI-driven narrative continues to funnel investment into the largest technology champions and equity valuations are now close to all-time highs again.  Yet any keen observer will note that doubts about the progress of generative AI have never been expressed so strongly, despite hundreds of billions of dollars still pouring into the ecosystem. Are we simply experiencing one big, beautiful bubble? In the first part of this document, we try to find out…Meanwhile, in the world of private equity, AI remains the superstar in H1-25 with $109bn raised. Yet, the concentration of fundraising around mega-round deals, a record number of acquisitions in the second quarter of 2025, associated with a growing scepticism about the concrete economic benefits of the massive investments in AI and very discerning investors in their investment choices, reflect a market that feels very polarised…We dive into the details in the second part of this paper.