Report
Patrick Artus

The concept of structural fiscal deficits excluding investment

The most likely scenario is that the ECB will extend its highly expansionary monetary policy of fiscal deficit monetisation, but that at some point in the future it will exit this policy due to its dangers. This prospect calls for a rethink of the euro zone’s fiscal rules: Cyclical deficits should be allowed to be financed with public debt, as the government bonds issued during recessions are monetised by central banks; Productive public investments (a list would have to be drawn up) should be allowed to be financed with public debt, as their returns are higher than the cost of the debt; This leaves structural (non-cyclical) fiscal deficits excluding productive public investment, i.e. non-cyclical current fiscal deficits, which should never be financed with public debt (examples include the payroll, social welfare spending, etc.).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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