Report
Patrick Artus

The consequences of the decline in the US employment rate

When comparing the United States and the euro zone, we see the dramatic decline in the US employment rate (the proportion of the working-age population that has a job). First, we can look at the macroeconomic consequences of the decline in the US employment rate. Has it reduced potential GDP or per capita income, or has it been offset by faster productivity gains? We see that despite the decline in the employment rate, US per capita GDP has been boosted by significant productivity gains. We can then look at the effects of the decline in the employment rate on inequality, redistributive policies and poverty. Relative to the euro zone, poverty and income inequality are higher in the United States. Lastly, we can examine the consequences on the labour market, on recruitment difficulties and on income distribution between wages and profits. There are greater and more structural hiring difficulties in the United States than in the euro zone, but they have not led to a skewing of income distribution in favour of employees in the United States. They have therefore not been inflationary up to now.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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